Graham-Cassidy Healthcare reform bill: sure, it’s dead but was it just AHCA 3.0? Let’s look closer.

Not living nor making my living with in the political pressure constant in Wash DC it’s hard to look at this new GOP effort, the Graham-Cassidy bill, without a healthy bit of skepticism.

Why is that? Have you ever witnessed some one make a decision based upon desperation or a willingness to “settle”? We all have. It’s common in personal relationships, it’s frequent in business decisions, and it’s compulsory in politics.

The Graham-Cassidy bill GCB) looks and feels a lot like a political effort to avoid “doing nothing” and facing constitutes after having made the promise to “repeal & replace” the ACA. If you were a GOP legislator up for re-election in 2018, especially in the House, do you want to go home  at the end of the year to face those who trusted you when you said “Obama-care must be repealed”? Of course you wouldn’t, no sane person would. But, we’re talking about politicians not sanity.

Here are a couple of points from GCB for reference:

  • Says it repeals the Individual mandate but truthfully only reduces penalty to zero. If you don’t want to buy, don’t worry, no penalty.
  • Says it repeals the Employer mandate but truthfully only reduces penalty to zero. If you don’t want to provide coverage, don’t worry, no penalty.
  • Maintains guarantee issue with no pre-ex while reducing penalty to zero for no coverage. Like the other GOP attempts this adds the burden to premium calculations and to premium payers.
  • Eliminates only the medical device tax while leaving all the others such as the Cadillac tax. Why not eliminate all the taxes.
  • Maintains Medicaid expansion and its subsidies but does so in a block grant manner.
  • Converts Federal subsidies given to states into Block grants so states can use as they please. Giving states flexibility sounds great but this may create chaos between states.
  • Gives states freedom to determine Essential Health Benefits and how block grant funds are to be spent. This sounds good except for the poor souls in liberal states like NY and Ca. who will see those funds spent on more freebies and no accountability.

There are countless other provisions that are a mirror of the two previous failed GOP attempts but I won’t burden you with this.

So, the language you will hear from supporters will be:

  • This is our last chance to get rid of the evil Obama-care.
  • If we don’t do something now then we won’t have another chance.
  • Doing something is better than doing nothing
  • Choice is clear, you’re either for Socialism or federalism.

If this effort fails the GOP folks can return to their districts and tell their supporters that “I tried but we just did not have enough votes” “Re-elect me again and we will continue our fight to repeal the evil liberal OB-care”.

Then, what are we suppose to do, vote for a Democrat or not vote. This is political baloney at its worst or best depending on your perspective.

If the GCB passes its initial vote in the Senate it will still face an incredible battle in the House. Plus remember that the House GOP is in a worse pickle that the Senate so they will try to flavor the baloney to their best interest.
I actually give it a 60/40 probability of passing the initial Senate vote.

OK, enough huh? Let’s watch this debate (debacle) unfold. It does not need to be this way but the swamp has not yet been drained, as they say.

Until next week, we’re all in this together.

Mark Reynolds, RHU
559-250-2000
mark@reynolds.wtf

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