Promoting “polls” that suggest a change in “favorable vs. unfavorable” opinions is the new technic to support the ACA. Can we trust these polls?

You’ve probably seen them, too. Polls that show the “favorable” opinions about the ACA increasing dramatically. Since the introduction of the failed House and Senate bills to replace the ACA more articles are stating that opinion polls are showing the “favorable” attitude about the ACA increasing.

Who in the world did these polls approach. And I do mean “in the world”, because if anyone likes the ACA better now than before January 2017, they must have been people from other world counties. Another likely scenario would be that the polled population was previously uninsured who are now covered by either Medicare expansion or a state exchange with full or nearly-full subsidy.

Who could find the ACA more favorable after 7 years of:

  • Double digit premium increase (100%+ in many areas)
  • 50% fewer providers in the PPOs
  • Crappy benefits with higher out of pockets
  • Limited number of insurers

The answer is that no one would find the ACA more favorable unless:

  • You paid premium before but now it’s paid for you.
  • You were uninsurable before and had no coverage.
  • Had no coverage before but what the heck – its free now.
  • You are Harry R or Nancy P or Z Emanuel or J Gruber.
  • Or one of their relatives (even that’s unlikely, though).

The key to the outcomes in these kind of polls is often the format in which questions were formulated to meet the desired outcome of the pollster. In a sensitive issue such one’s health care it is easy to ask a yes-no question in a manner that leads the subject to the answer desired.
For instance: if I asked you “Do you think it’s fair for insurers to decline an applicant for coverage?” you could easily say NO. But, would your answer change if you knew that the applicant had several opportunities to enroll before but chose not to until just recently after a negative diagnosis was received?

Our citizens are smarter than politician think, or want for that matter, so they know what should be done. However, if they are polled with questions impossible to answer then it skews the outcome. As Ms. Vido, in My Cousin Vinny, said “It’s a bullshit question”. By that, as she goes on to explain – “It’s a trick question. No one could answer that question.” So how are we to believe these polls?

Or let’s say you were asked – “Sir, do you still beat your kids?”. Of course you don’t because you never have but you must answer yes or no. The point is that professional pollsters conducting polls for entities with certain agendas can make the American public seem like it supports or does not support an issue based on the specific outcome desired.

So, don’t you find it difficult to believe that any American would answer that he/she is more favorably inclined toward the ACA today than they were 1 or 2 years ago? Unless, it was because they were among the citizens outlined above.

I know I can be a skeptic or even a cynic, as I’ve mentioned before, but some things are beyond giving the benefit of the doubt.

Now, if you were to ask people the following questions you could be sure of people’s true opinions:

  • Do you think premiums increasing 100% per year is reasonable?
  • Do you think insurers should be subsidized by the government.
  • Do you think PPOs with half the Doctors carved out provide good service?
  • Do you think the premium you pay should be tax-deductible?
  • Do you think people who choose not to enroll should be GI with no Pre-ex later?
  • Do you want your plan to cover pediatric dental if you are a single 50 yr. old male?
  • Do you think healthy working-age people should get their coverage for free?
  • Do you think the Congress should have been better prepared to offer a replacement plan for the ACA?
  • Do you think calling the House or Senate’s bill a “repeal” was an assault on your intelligence?

I guess I got on to another rant there for a moment but you get my meaning. It is very difficult to believe that tens-of-millions of our hard-working premium-paying citizens would find the ACA more favorable today than they did a year or two ago.
But, what do you think?

Until next week, just remember that we’re all in this together.

Please keep praying for the folks in south Texas and Louisiana. They have a long haul ahead.

Mark Reynolds, RHU

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